http://d.hatena.ne.jp/Hicksian/20080623#1214212395
時間に余裕のない方は代わりに以下の論説をご覧になればよろしいのではないでしょうか。
Guillermo Calvo、“Exploding commodity prices, lax monetary policy, and sovereign wealth funds”（VOX, 20 June 2008）
時間に余裕のある方は、・・・やはりCalvo先生の論説（だけ）を読まれたほうがいいでしょう。
ちなみにCalvoは原料価格上昇の原因は投機マネーによるものではなく、アメリカなどの金融緩和などファンダメンタルな要因で説明できるという立場である。
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/06/calvo-exploding.html
Guillermo Calvo argues that fundamentals, not speculation, explain rising commodity prices. He says "when analysed from the perspective of some future time, this whole episode will look very much like a bubble in the commodity market, a market mirage, even though what is behind it is a fundamental factor: lower demand for liquid assets by sovereigns like China, Chile or Dubai."
ちなみにそれに反論しているのがKrugman。わたしは時間に余裕がないのでどちらも後で読みます。
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/21/calvo-on-commodities/
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/06/krugman-on-calv.html
Second, Calvo argues that inflation risks stem mainly from excess liquidity. He's in good company there, but I won't join in that chorus. In general, I don't trust hydraulic metaphors for monetary economics. And we are in a world where central banks target interest rates, not monetary aggregates; the risk of inflation, if there is one, would come from Bernanke and Trichet keeping rates too low too long, not on what's happening to M2 or some broader M-something.
※追記：
こちらもぜひ参照してください。両者の論点が簡潔にまとめられています。
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/econ-econome/20080625/p2
