梶ピエールのブログ

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人民元の切り上げは貿易不均衡の是正に(たいして)寄与しない

  Menzie Chinnによるブログ記事より。この記事はリンクも充実していて非常に参考になるのだが、その中の記述より。

If we take the Goldstein-Lardy misalignment estimates of 20% to heart, then a 20% appreciation would lead to an approximately 91.4 billion (2000$) reduction in the Chinese trade balance. As best as I can tell, the export prices from China, and to China (as proxied by unit value indices for Hong Kong) have probably stayed constant relative to 2000; hence the nominal impact is around 90 billion USD (with considerable uncertainty surrounding this point estimate).

This leaves a large Chinese trade surplus in place, around 170 billion even before the rebound in the Chinese surplus anticipated as the world aggregate demand recovers.

This suggests to me that rebalancing requires as much or more Chinese fiscal stimulus and a concerted effort to encourage private consumption via enhancing the social safety net, in addition to RMB revaluation.

 日本では小川英治さんたちが同じような主張をされていますな。